Nvidia(US:NVDA) 智通财经网·2025-08-19 08:08Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is expected to report strong Q2 results for FY2026, with favorable demand, supply, and competitive outlooks, leading Morgan Stanley to raise its target price from $200 to $206, indicating a potential upside of nearly 13% from the current stock price [1] Demand Summary - Nvidia's customers have described demand as "stunning," "unmet," and "huge," indicating a shift from supply constraints to surging inference demand [2] - The growth in demand is primarily driven by Nvidia's four major hyperscale customers, with additional contributions from second-tier cloud service providers and sovereign clients [2] - CoreWeave is expected to spend about 50% of its capital expenditures in Q4, highlighting the expanding customer base and strong demand beyond just top-tier clients [2] Supply Summary - Multiple factors are improving supply, including accelerated rack assembly, with Hon Hai expected to triple its rack shipments in Q3 [2] - The top four ODMs are projected to double their rack shipments in Q3, with an annual estimate of 34,000 racks corresponding to approximately 240 million GPUs, potentially generating around $90 billion in revenue for Nvidia [2] - Testing bottlenecks are easing, with Advantest's delivery cycles shortening, which is expected to normalize testing times [3] Revenue Forecasts - Morgan Stanley has raised its revenue forecasts for Nvidia, increasing Q2 revenue from $45.2 billion to $46.6 billion and Q3 revenue from $51.3 billion to $52.5 billion [1] - The full-year revenue forecast for FY2026 has been adjusted from $264.6 billion to $273.2 billion, with Non-GAAP EPS estimates raised from $6.28 to $6.51 [1] Competitive Landscape - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about Nvidia's market share growth, projecting an 85% market share in 2026 despite competition from ASICs and AMD [4] - Nvidia's spending from major ASIC users, such as Google, is expected to increase over threefold, while ASIC spending is projected to grow only slightly [4] - Nvidia's R&D investment exceeding $15 billion and expansion into rack interconnect, software, and services will make it increasingly difficult for competitors to surpass Nvidia's performance in mainstream tasks [4]