美股在“杰克逊霍尔周”上涨概率更高，但这次不一样？

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is a significant event for economists, central bank officials, and financial market participants, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech being the highlight of the week [1] - Historically, the S&P 500 index has shown positive returns during Jackson Hole week, with a median increase of 0.8% since 2009, and only five out of the last sixteen symposiums resulted in declines [2] - U.S. Treasury bonds typically experience an upward trend during this week, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF showing a median increase of 0.2% [4] Group 2 - There is increasing pressure on Powell from the White House to consider interest rate cuts at the upcoming September meeting, with market expectations for a high probability of a rate cut exceeding 80% [4] - Disagreements among Federal Reserve policymakers regarding the appropriateness of restarting rate cuts have intensified, with notable dissent during the July meeting [4] - Concerns about the labor market's weakness may compel Powell to acknowledge the need for lower interest rates, which could lead to increased market anxiety [5] Group 3 - Investors are advised to consider reducing stock positions ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting due to high stock valuations, which may heighten sensitivity to negative signals [6]