上海华通铂银：避险需求减弱，银价挣扎于38美元关口

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that silver prices are experiencing a downturn, trading around $38.00, influenced by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which is providing some support for precious metals [1] - Market sentiment remains cautious, leading to a flow of safe-haven funds into commodities, while the possibility of more aggressive easing by the U.S. central bank is diminishing, contributing to a stronger U.S. dollar [1] - The CME FedWatch tool shows an 84% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, which is impacting silver prices positively [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, silver is hovering above the neckline of a bearish double top pattern formed in the $38.50-$39.00 range, indicating a loss of upward momentum [3] - A decisive drop below the support level of $37.50 could open the door for further declines to $36.50 or even $35.50 [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral around the 50 mark, and the MACD shows early signs of convergence near the zero line, reinforcing the view that silver is currently in a consolidation phase with no clear direction [3]