Micron Stock At 10x Earnings: AI's Best Bargain?

Core Insights - Micron Technology's stock has increased by approximately 6% in the last month and nearly 40% year-to-date, driven by strong demand for AI infrastructure and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) products [2][3] - The company raised its Q4 FY'25 revenue forecast to $11.2 billion from $10.7 billion, with adjusted earnings projected at $2.85, up from $2.50 [2] - Micron's revenues are expected to grow by 47% this fiscal year and approximately 30% for FY'26, indicating a potential shift from a cyclical memory play to a more secular AI growth narrative [3][6] HBM and AI Demand - HBM revenue surged nearly 50% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 FY'25, reaching a $6 billion annualized run rate, driven by the rapid adoption of generative AI [4] - Micron is a key supplier for Nvidia's Blackwell GB200 platform and AMD's Instinct MI350 series GPUs, with increasing memory capacity per AI system [4] - HBM production is complex and constrained, requiring three times as many wafers as standard DRAM, leading to a bottleneck in supply [4] Financial Performance - Micron's gross margin for Q3 was 39.0%, with an anticipated adjusted gross margin of 44.5% for Q4, largely due to the shift towards HBM [5] - The company aims to capture 20-25% of the HBM market by late 2025, while also being the sole volume producer of low-power DRAM for data centers [4][5] Market Dynamics - Micron's stock is trading at approximately 15x estimated earnings for 2025 and about 9.5x FY'26 earnings, suggesting it may be undervalued [3][6] - The traditional memory market remains cyclical, with fluctuations expected, but the demand for HBM could provide a buffer against typical boom-bust cycles [7] - HBM currently constitutes about 15% of Micron's total revenue, with expectations for this proportion to increase in the future [7]