深度*公司*贵州茅台(600519)：2季度业绩环比降速 公司主动调整纾压 经营节奏稳健

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit growth, while adjusting its operational pace in response to external market pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 89.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.4 billion, up 8.9% year-on-year [1]. - In 2Q25, the company recorded revenue and net profit of 38.8 billion and 18.6 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 7.3% and 5.2% [1]. - The company's operating cash flow in 2Q25 was 4.31 billion, down 84.3% year-on-year, indicating pressure on cash flow performance [2]. Group 2: Product and Channel Performance - In 2Q25, the company adjusted its product structure, with Moutai liquor being the main revenue contributor, while series liquor faced significant decline [3]. - Revenue growth rates for Moutai liquor and series liquor in 1H25 were 10.2% and 4.7%, respectively, with 2Q25 growth rates of 11.0% and -6.5% [3]. - Direct sales channel revenue grew by 18.6% year-on-year in 1H25, accounting for 44.8% of total revenue, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2Q25 was 47.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin fell to 90.4%, down 0.3 percentage points [4]. - The gross margins for Moutai liquor and series liquor were 93.8% and 77.6%, respectively, with series liquor experiencing a significant decline due to pricing pressures [4]. - The sales expense ratio increased by 0.5 percentage points in 2Q25, primarily due to higher advertising and marketing expenditures [4]. Group 4: Valuation and Outlook - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027, expecting net profits of 92.67 billion, 98.27 billion, and 104.46 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.5%, 6.0%, and 6.3% respectively [5]. - The current market valuation corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 19.4X, 18.3X, and 17.2X for the respective years [5].