Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2025, with revenue and net profit growth, driven by increased aluminum prices and operational efficiency [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 81.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 13.55 billion yuan, up 35.4% year-on-year, aligning with previous forecasts [1]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.36 billion yuan, reflecting a 35.0% increase year-on-year [1]. Segment Performance - Electrolytic Aluminum: Revenue reached 51.88 billion yuan, a 5.2% increase year-on-year, with sales volume of 2.906 million tons, up 2.4%. The average selling price rose to 17,853 yuan/ton, a 2.7% increase [1]. - Alumina: Revenue was 20.66 billion yuan, a 27.5% increase year-on-year, with sales volume of 6.368 million tons, up 15.6%. The average selling price increased by 10.3% to 3,243 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum Processing: Revenue reached 8.07 billion yuan, a 6.5% increase year-on-year, with sales volume of 392,000 tons, up 3.5%. The average selling price was 20,615 yuan/ton, a 2.9% increase [1]. Share Buyback and Dividends - The company spent 2.61 billion Hong Kong dollars on share buybacks in H1 2025 and plans to allocate no less than 3 billion Hong Kong dollars for buybacks in the future, indicating strong confidence in its development [2]. - The company aims to maintain a stable high dividend payout rate, with a dividend rate of 63.4% for 2024 [2]. Future Outlook - The company has a well-integrated industrial chain with a total electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.459 million tons and alumina capacity of 21 million tons, ensuring strong raw material supply [3]. - A decline in thermal coal prices is expected to enhance cost advantages and improve earnings elasticity [3]. - The shift of electrolytic aluminum capacity to Yunnan, supported by green energy, is anticipated to contribute to long-term growth [3]. - The company is also expanding into iron ore resources through its stake in the Guinea iron ore project, which may provide additional investment returns [3]. Investment Recommendations - The upward trend in aluminum prices and significant cost advantages are expected to enhance earnings elasticity, with projected net profits of 24.93 billion yuan, 25.89 billion yuan, and 27.24 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 8, 8, and 7 times [4].
中国宏桥(01378.HK)：电解铝+氧化铝量价齐升 回购彰显发展信心