“股债跷跷板”效应显现，后续债市将“脱敏”

Group 1 - On August 18, the A-share market reached a historic moment, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3728.03 points, hitting a nearly ten-year high since August 2015, and the total market capitalization of A-shares exceeding 100 trillion yuan for the first time in history [1] - The bond market experienced a significant decline, with analysts predicting that the bond market will remain weak in the short term, but may gradually become "desensitized" to stock market fluctuations and return to fundamentals in the long term [1][4] Group 2 - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect has been evident since July, with the stock market maintaining an upward trend, while the 10-year government bond yield rose from approximately 1.641% to around 1.78% between July 9 and August 19, reflecting a volatility of over 13 basis points [4] - Factors contributing to the rise in interest rates include strong stock market performance, changes in fund flows, and institutional redemptions, alongside a tax payment period that has posed challenges to interbank liquidity [4][6] Group 3 - Analysts maintain an optimistic outlook for the bond market, suggesting that despite the current weak performance, the long-term trend will not indicate a sustained rise in interest rates, as the monetary policy remains moderately accommodative [5][6] - The People's Bank of China has recently conducted large-scale reverse repurchase operations to stabilize the liquidity environment, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan on August 19, which may provide some support to the bond market [6][7]