股债跷跷板”效应显现，后续债市将“脱敏

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reached a historic moment with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3728.03 points, marking the highest level since August 2015, and the total market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan for the first time in history [1][3] Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index hit a peak of 3745.94 points during trading, reflecting strong bullish sentiment in the market [1] - The index has maintained an upward trend since breaking through 3500 points in early July, reaching 3600 points on July 23 [4] Group 2: Bond Market Reaction - The bond market has experienced significant declines, with the 30-year main contract dropping 1.33%, marking the largest decline since March 2025 [3] - Major interest rate bond yields have risen sharply by 4-6 basis points, with the 30-year government bond yield exceeding 2% for the first time in five months [3][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect has been evident since July, with rising stock market risk appetite suppressing bond market performance [4] - Analysts suggest that the strong stock market performance, along with factors like fund flows and institutional redemptions, have contributed to rising interest rates in the bond market [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts maintain an optimistic view on the bond market, suggesting that the relationship between bond yields and stock indices will eventually return to fundamentals [5][6] - Despite the current weakness in the bond market, it does not indicate a long-term upward trend in interest rates, as monetary policy remains accommodative [6][7]