估值冲上“云霄”，和平协议会是美股"利好出尽"的导火索吗？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is currently facing severe overvaluation warnings from nearly all major valuation models, raising concerns that positive news regarding a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could trigger a sell-off as the market lacks new upward momentum [1][2]. Valuation Metrics - The Buffett Indicator, which measures the total market capitalization against GDP, is currently around 200%, exceeding its long-term average by two standard deviations, a level previously seen only at the peaks of the 2000 internet bubble and the end of 2021, both of which were followed by over 40% market corrections [2]. - The CAPE Ratio is hovering around 35, also above its historical average by two standard deviations, a level reached only in 1929 and 2000, both of which ended in market crashes [4]. - The Price-to-Sales Ratio has deviated from its trend line by over three standard deviations, reaching a historical extreme, with similar high levels in 2000 and 2021 leading to significant valuation corrections [6]. - The Mean Reversion Model indicates that the S&P 500 index is currently more than three standard deviations above its inflation-adjusted trend line, a level last seen at the end of 2021, which preceded a 25% market decline in 2022 [8]. Interest Rates and Macroeconomic Headwinds - Even models that are typically lenient towards the stock market in high interest rate environments are signaling overvaluation, as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 4%, indicating that stocks are not providing sufficient attractiveness compared to bonds [9]. - The macroeconomic environment is deteriorating, with the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report showing inflation pressures stronger than expected, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates in the short term [9]. - Persistently positive real interest rates are quietly dragging down economic growth, which will eventually impact corporate earnings. If earnings expectations begin to decline due to high rates and rising costs, the already elevated valuations will become increasingly unsustainable [9].