NOV Stock Drops 19% in the Past Six Months: Time to Hold or Exit?

Core Insights - NOV Inc. is a global leader in oilfield and energy equipment, known for innovation and reliability, but its share price has dropped 19.1% over the past six months, raising investor concerns [1][15] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, NOV reported adjusted earnings of 29 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 30 cents, primarily due to margin pressures in the Energy Equipment segment [4] - The backlog in the Energy Equipment segment fell to $4.30 billion, with new orders dropping to $420 million in Q2, down from $977 million the previous year, indicating potential revenue growth challenges [12] Market Challenges - Aftermarket spare parts demand has sharply declined, particularly in the Drilling Equipment business, with a projected mid-teen decline in aftermarket revenues for the full year [5] - North America's oil-directed drilling market has softened, with a 9% decline in the U.S. rig count since March 2025, leading to reduced capital expenditures and further revenue dampening [6] - Delays in offshore projects due to supply-chain constraints and macroeconomic uncertainty are impacting near-term revenue visibility, reflected in a book-to-bill ratio of 66 for the Energy Equipment segment in Q2 [7] International Market Dynamics - International markets, including Saudi Arabia and Latin America, are experiencing slowdowns, with repositioning costs affecting results, although long-term potential remains [8] Operational Efficiency - NOV's working capital as a percentage of revenues was 30% in Q2 2025, with expectations to remain elevated at 27-29% for the full year, which may limit free cash flow conversion [10] - The company plans to cut $100 million in annual costs by the end of 2026, but rising tariffs and inflation may offset these savings [11] Competitive Landscape - Increasing price competition in the market is squeezing margins, particularly in the Energy Products and Services segment, as competitors use concessions to regain market share [13] - Despite returning $176 million to shareholders in Q2 2025 through dividends and buybacks, the sustainability of this capital return is uncertain due to declining profitability [14] Relative Performance - NOV has underperformed compared to peers and the broader oil and energy sector, with a 19.1% decline over the past six months, which is steeper than competitors like Oil States International and Solaris Energy Infrastructure [15]