多晶硅价格月内反弹超36% “反内卷”效果如何？

Core Viewpoint - The price of polysilicon, a key raw material in the photovoltaic industry, has rebounded significantly due to multiple factors, including the "anti-involution" policy aimed at curbing low-price competition in the industry [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - Polysilicon prices rose from a low of 34,400 yuan/ton at the end of June to 47,100 yuan/ton by the end of July, marking a 36.9% increase within a month [1]. - As of August 13, the transaction price for n-type polysilicon was reported between 45,000 and 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,400 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.42% [2]. - The futures market played a significant role in this price rebound, with polysilicon futures prices increasing by over 50% in the short term [3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy has been a crucial factor in the price recovery, with the government emphasizing the need to eliminate low-price disorderly competition in the photovoltaic sector [2][3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has mandated that polysilicon sales prices should not fall below the full cost, and companies are encouraged to adhere to self-discipline agreements regarding production cuts [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the price increase, the fundamental supply-demand imbalance in the polysilicon market remains unresolved, with expected production of 125,000 tons in August and potential increases in September [5][6]. - The current market conditions indicate that inventory levels are likely to rise by over 50,000 tons, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [5]. - Experts suggest that addressing inventory pressure is urgent, advocating for a sales-driven production approach to manage excess stock [5][6]. Group 4: Market Behavior - Trade behaviors, such as stockpiling by traders in anticipation of price increases, have also contributed to the price rise [4]. - The market is currently characterized by "dual distribution contracts" and "shadow contracts," which distort true price signals [4]. - The overall market remains under pressure, with the main purchasing model still not returning to a rational state, indicating that current prices may be nearing a temporary peak [6][7].