U.S. Natural Gas Futures Extend Weekly Losses on High Supply

Industry Overview - The U.S. Energy Department reported a higher-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies, with stockpiles rising by 56 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended Aug. 8, surpassing analysts' expectations of a 53 Bcf addition [3][4][8] - Total natural gas stocks reached 3,186 Bcf, which is 79 Bcf (2.4%) below the 2024 level but 196 Bcf (6.6%) higher than the five-year average [4][8] - Natural gas prices fell approximately 3% week over week, marking the fourth consecutive weekly decline, with the September front-month contract slipping below $2.90/MMBtu [5][8] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Natural gas production in the Lower 48 states averaged over 108 Bcf per day in August, slightly up from July's record of 107.9 Bcf per day [6] - Daily natural gas consumption increased to 108.1 Bcf from 102.8 Bcf the previous week, driven by stronger power demand [4] - LNG flows are rebounding, with shipments climbing to about 16.2 Bcf per day, matching prior records [6] Future Outlook - The EIA projects that Henry Hub prices will average $3.60/MMBtu in the second half of 2025 and rise to $4.30 in 2026, supported by incremental LNG export growth and steady power sector demand [7][8] - Despite current above-average inventories, the EIA expects them to fall closer to the five-year mean as the year progresses, tightening balances into the winter heating season [7] Company Focus - Expand Energy (EXE): The largest natural gas producer in the U.S. post-merger, well-positioned to capitalize on increasing demand driven by LNG exports and electrification trends. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share indicates a 370.2% year-over-year surge [2][9][10] - Gulfport Energy (GPOR): Focused on natural gas exploration and production, emerged from bankruptcy with a stronger balance sheet. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share indicates a 46.7% year-over-year surge [2][11][12] - Antero Resources (AR): A leading natural gas producer with a strong production outlook in the Appalachian Basin. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share indicates a remarkable 1,281% year-over-year growth [2][13][14]