Group 1 - International gold prices have shown a recovery trend since August 18, with London spot gold opening at $3333.347 per ounce on August 19, reaching a peak of over $3341 per ounce [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported an increase of 4.01 tons in holdings on August 15, bringing the total to 965.37 tons, indicating a rising interest from institutional and retail investors [1][3] - Domestic investors have also shown strong interest in gold ETFs, with a net inflow of 1.9 million yuan across five commodity gold ETFs from August 18 to 19 [1][3] Group 2 - Analysts attribute the rising demand for gold to a weakening dollar and expectations of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy towards interest rate cuts, rather than solely geopolitical risks [2] - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is predicted to lower the dollar index and real interest rates, enhancing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [2] - Global central banks continue to purchase gold, reinforcing gold's status as a currency alternative amid the long-term trend of a weakening dollar [2] Group 3 - UBS has raised its gold price forecasts, projecting a target price of $3600 per ounce by March 2026 and $3700 per ounce by June 2026, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar [3] - The global demand for gold is expected to grow by 3% this year, reaching 4760 tons, the highest level since 2011 [3] - The current market structure suggests that gold ETFs will continue to attract funds due to uncertainties in global economic recovery and potential monetary policy adjustments [3] Group 4 - Despite the support for gold prices in the medium to long term, analysts caution that short-term fluctuations are likely to persist, and investors should be prudent in their ETF allocations [4] - Recent market movements indicate that personal investors are increasingly favoring smaller gold ETFs, while larger ETFs like SPDR continue to see net inflows [4] - The overall market sentiment suggests that short-term funding may not support a breakout in gold prices, leading to continued volatility [4]
黄金ETF两日吸金近2亿元 专家:金价短期震荡仍将持续
Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao·2025-08-19 14:48