TSM's Overseas Fabrication Push Ramps Up: Are Margins Sustainable?

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is advancing its global manufacturing expansion to meet the demand for advanced process technologies, raising its planned U.S. investment to $165 billion by March 2025 [1][10] - The expansion includes six advanced wafer fabs, two advanced packaging facilities, and a major R&D center in Arizona, aimed at supporting leading-edge customers in smartphones, AI, and HPC applications [1][10] - TSMC is also expanding in Japan with its first Kumamoto specialty fab already in production and a second fab set to begin construction later this year [2] - In Europe, TSMC plans to establish a specialty technology fab in Dresden, Germany [2] - This global expansion strategy is intended to secure leadership in advanced chip manufacturing and address geopolitical concerns through supply chain diversification [3] Financial Performance and Projections - TSMC anticipates a gross margin contraction of 2-3% in 2025, with further dilution expected to widen to 3-4% annually in subsequent years due to the ramp-up of new fabs [3][10] - In Q2 2025, TSMC's gross margin declined by 20 basis points sequentially, with forecasts indicating a further contraction of 210 basis points in Q3 [4] - The company plans to allocate $38-$42 billion in capital expenditures (CapEx) for 2025, emphasizing the importance of execution and cost discipline to protect margins [4] - Despite these challenges, TSMC remains confident in sustaining a long-term gross margin above 53% [4] Competitive Landscape - TSMC leads the global foundry market, but competitors like Intel and GlobalFoundries are increasing their efforts in localized chip manufacturing [5] - Intel is investing $100 billion for new fabs in the U.S. and Europe under its IDM 2.0 strategy, aiming to compete directly with TSMC [6] - GlobalFoundries is expanding capacity in the U.S., Germany, and Singapore to meet demand for automotive, IoT, and industrial chips, positioning itself as a trusted local manufacturing partner [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - TSMC's shares have increased approximately 22.3% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's growth of 13.8% [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.13, which is lower than the sector's average of 28.19 [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSMC's earnings in 2025 and 2026 indicates a year-over-year increase of 36.9% and 13.1%, respectively, although estimates have been revised downwards recently [15]