Core Viewpoint - Circle Internet Group (CRCL) shares have experienced a significant decline of 13.3% in the past week, underperforming both the Zacks Financial-Miscellaneous Services industry and the broader Zacks Finance sector [1][2] Stock Performance - Since its initial public offering on June 4, CRCL shares have returned 70.1%, outperforming peers such as Coinbase (25.2%), PayPal (-4.4%), and Fiserv (-16.6%) [4] - The recent drop in CRCL shares is linked to a public offering of 10 million shares at $130 each, with 8 million shares being offered by existing stockholders, raising concerns about long-term growth prospects [2][9] Financial Metrics - CRCL's revenues surged 53% year over year to $658.1 million, driven by stablecoin adoption and reserve income, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.97% [13] - The average USDC in circulation increased by 86% year over year to $61 billion, with USDC in circulation growing 90% year over year to $61.3 billion at the end of Q2 [11] - The company redeemed USDC worth $40.8 billion, up 17% year over year, while minting USDC worth $42.2 billion, up 21% year over year [12] Valuation and Market Position - CRCL shares are considered overvalued, with a Value Score of F and a forward 12-month price/sales ratio of 11.14X, significantly higher than the industry's 3.38X [7] - The RLDC margin contracted by 408 basis points year over year to 38%, with expectations for the 2025 RLDC margin to be between 36-38% [13] Regulatory Environment and Adoption - The passage of the GENIUS Act on July 18 has improved the regulatory environment for stablecoins like USDC, facilitating enterprise adoption [12] - The company has launched the Circle Payments Network and Circle Gateway, expanding its platform for financial institutions and enhancing cross-chain USDC usage [14][15] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CRCL's earnings remains unchanged at 19 cents per share for Q3 2025, with revenues estimated at $661.4 million [17] - For the full year 2025, the earnings estimate is $1.10 per share, with revenues pegged at $2.55 billion [18] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape includes established players like Coinbase, which has partnered with Shopify to enable USDC payments, and Fiserv, which is developing a blockchain-based digital asset platform [20] - Circle Internet's investments in platform development and partnerships are expected to increase operating expenses, projected between $475 million and $490 million for 2025, indicating a growth rate of 20-24% [21]
Circle Internet Drops 13% in a Week: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?