分析人士：应将“周期阵痛”化为“升级动力”

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese PVC industry is at a critical juncture of "breaking through and upgrading," where futures tools have transformed from mere risk management instruments to foundational infrastructure for enhancing industrial competitiveness, providing new pathways for PVC companies to tackle trade barriers and solidify global advantages [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Transformation - The future export competitiveness of the Chinese PVC industry will shift from a reliance on low costs to a dual advantage of "low costs + empowerment from futures tools" [1]. - The role of PVC futures and derivative tools has evolved significantly, now supporting long-term competitiveness rather than just hedging price fluctuations [1][2]. - The integration of "coal-electricity-calcium carbide" in China's PVC production provides a cost advantage of 500-800 RMB/ton compared to global ethylene processes, with futures tools adding a layer of certainty to this advantage [1][2]. Group 2: New Trading Models - Innovative models such as basis trading, spot-futures combinations, and rights-inclusive trading are reconstructing the pricing logic in PVC trade [1][2]. - Basis trading allows international clients to choose pricing timing, mitigating price volatility risks, while rights-inclusive trading offers price protection, enhancing cooperation stability [2]. - The transition signifies that PVC companies are evolving from mere product exporters to comprehensive service providers that include risk management solutions, moving from "opportunistic exports" to "strategic market cultivation" [2]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term challenges like export pressures, high domestic inventory, and insufficient demand, industry insiders remain optimistic about the long-term competitiveness of the PVC sector, with the futures market being a crucial support for this confidence [2]. - The manufacturing system's cost advantages, combined with the risk management capabilities provided by futures tools, remain core competitive strengths for Chinese companies [2]. - Companies are encouraged to transform current cyclical pains into upgrading momentum by accelerating product upgrades and diversifying global market layouts while effectively utilizing futures derivatives for risk management [2].