沪铜 关注美国降息预期变化

Group 1 - Copper prices are currently experiencing a volatile trend, with electrolytic copper supply remaining at a high level while downstream consumption is in a seasonal lull. The demand for copper price increases driven by inventory replenishment in the U.S. has weakened due to significant stockpiling in the first half of the year [1] - The actual production cuts in domestic smelting plants during the first half of the year were smaller than market expectations, primarily due to increased use of scrap materials and rising prices of by-products like sulfuric acid, which mitigated losses for smelting plants [2] - The shortage of copper ore has not fully transmitted to the smelting sector, and the production of electrolytic copper is expected to remain high in the short term, despite a potential increase in pressure on production from ore shortages by the end of the year [2][3] Group 2 - After the implementation of U.S. tariffs, the demand from exports has weakened, but the market has shown resilience. As August approaches, downstream companies are cautiously preparing for the peak season, with a relatively positive market performance despite the lack of strong expectations for consumption [3] - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the U.S. remains a fluctuating factor, with domestic signals indicating increased fiscal support. However, the focus on "de-involution" and eliminating outdated capacity has limited direct relevance to the copper market [4] - The macroeconomic outlook, particularly regarding U.S. interest rate cut expectations, will be crucial for copper prices. If the economy continues to show resilience, the anticipated rate cuts could drive copper prices upward, although potential hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve could exert downward pressure [4]