基本面驱动有限 沪铜后期走势关注美国降息预期变化

Group 1 - Copper prices are currently in a fluctuating state, with high levels of electrolytic copper supply and weak downstream consumption due to seasonal factors [1] - The accumulation of inventory in the US after continuous stocking in the first half of the year has weakened the logic of price increases driven by replenishment demand following tariff implementation [1] - Market trading is influenced by interest rate cut expectations, which have caused fluctuations in the US dollar index, impacting copper prices [1] Group 2 - Domestic smelting plants have reduced production less than market expectations due to increased use of scrap materials and rising prices of by-products like sulfuric acid, leading to lower-than-expected losses [2] - The expected reduction in electrolytic copper production in the second half of the year is likely to remain at high levels, with short-term supply-demand issues in the mining sector easing slightly [2] - Despite the short-term easing, the long-term supply gap in raw materials has not been resolved, and the mining shortage is expected to exert further pressure on smelting production by the end of the year [2] Group 3 - After the implementation of US tariffs, the demand from exports has weakened, but the market shows resilience as companies prepare for the peak season [3] - There is a cautious attitude towards peak season consumption, with no strong expectations for either robust or weak demand, although market sentiment appears relatively positive [3] - The current electrolytic copper market does not exhibit significant contradictions, and the mining shortage has not fully transmitted to the smelting sector [3] Group 4 - Domestic signals indicate increased fiscal support, but the focus is more on "anti-involution" and phasing out outdated capacity, which has limited relevance to the copper market [4] - The market is reassessing the likelihood of dovish interest rate cuts, with a weaker dollar providing renewed support for the base metals sector [4] - The macroeconomic outlook remains crucial, as rising interest rate cut expectations could drive copper prices upward, although potential hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve could exert downward pressure [4]