昆药集团(600422)：工业收入有望逐渐修复

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing performance pressure due to delays in centralized procurement execution and channel reforms, but there is a sequential improvement in Q2 2025 performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 335 million, 20 million, and 15 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -11.7%, -26.9%, and -5.6% [1] - In Q2 2025, the revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items showed year-on-year changes of -6.7%, -23.0%, and +67.7%, indicating a sequential improvement driven by the gradual execution of centralized procurement and increased terminal sales [1] - The parent company's revenue in H1 2025 was 570 million yuan, up 7.5%, primarily due to recovery in shipments after Q2 centralized procurement execution, while the gross margin decreased by 13 percentage points due to price reductions from centralized procurement [2] Group 2: Subsidiary Performance - Subsidiary performance varied, with China Resources Shenghuo generating revenue of 250 million yuan and net profit of 90 million yuan; Kunzhong Medicine reported revenue of 330 million yuan (down 22.5%) and net profit of 70 million yuan (down 29.8%); Beikenuoton had revenue of 110 million yuan (down 47.5%) and a net loss of 20.08 million yuan; and Xuesaitong Pharmaceutical achieved revenue of 48.16 million yuan (down 28.5%) and net profit of 5.41 million yuan (down 47.5%) [2] - Kun Medicine's commercial revenue was 1.76 billion yuan (down 4.2%) with a net profit of 40 million yuan (up 198.8%) [2] Group 3: Organizational and Channel Reforms - The company is undergoing significant channel reforms in 2025, focusing on integrating retail pharmacy operations, restructuring value, and transitioning from decentralized control to a highly centralized sales system [3] - Organizational changes are being implemented to enhance efficiency, including merging key functions, restructuring business units, and integrating sales channels [3] Group 4: Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin in H1 2025 was 39.8% (down 1.3 percentage points), with a sequential improvement in Q2 2025 to 42.6% compared to 36.9% in Q1 2025; the net profit margin was 7.5% (up 0.9 percentage points) with Q2 showing improvement [4] - The sales expense ratio was 24.1% (down 3.4 percentage points), while the management expense ratio was 5.2% (up 1.0 percentage points) and the R&D expense ratio was 1.3% (up 0.2 percentage points) [4] - Operating cash flow was stable with a net amount of 219 million yuan [4] Group 5: Investment Outlook - Due to the execution of centralized procurement and progress in channel reforms, the company has adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 600 million, 700 million, and 850 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -7.1%, +17%, and +20% [4] - The target price for 2025 is set at 15.9 yuan based on a 20x target PE ratio [4]