Workflow
2022-2023年新增大量高息存款在2025-2026年集中到期,如果风险偏好能够一直保持在较高水平,存款搬家路径是比较顺畅的
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-20 00:38

Core Viewpoint - In the first seven months of 2025, enterprises and residents collectively received approximately 20.05 trillion yuan in funding, with bank loans (including write-offs and ABS) amounting to about 12.93 trillion yuan, corporate bond financing at 1.42 trillion yuan, and net fiscal expenditure contributing 5.61 trillion yuan. The analysis indicates that the financing demand from the real sector remains weak, and the efficiency of fund circulation between enterprises and residents is low, prompting increased counter-cyclical fiscal measures [1][2][3] Funding Sources and Uses - The total funding sources for the real sector in the first seven months of 2025 are similar to 2023 levels but significantly higher than 2024. The loan increment in 2025 shows slight growth compared to 2024 but is notably lower than 2023. Fiscal net expenditure is significantly higher than in 2023-2024, indicating enhanced counter-cyclical fiscal efforts amid disappointing economic recovery [2][3] - The contribution of loan increments to total funding sources from 2023 to 2025 is 77.6%, 75.4%, and 64.5%, while the contribution of fiscal net expenditure increments is 16.0%, 22.7%, and 28.0% respectively [2] Fund Flow Trends - The proportion of funds flowing into resident deposits has decreased, while the proportion flowing into financial investments has increased from 2023 to 2025. The flow to resident deposits was 53.9%, 53.7%, and 48.2% respectively, with the share of time deposits also declining [3] - The scale of funds flowing into financial investments was 6.13 trillion yuan, 10.86 trillion yuan, and 9.95 trillion yuan from 2023 to 2025, accounting for 29.8%, 65.2%, and 49.6% of total funding sources [3] Deposit Migration Analysis - The efficiency of fund circulation in the real sector has not improved, with a significant increase in non-bank deposits. The historical high proportion of funds flowing into resident deposits since 2022 is attributed to weak consumer confidence, leading to a decline in consumption and investment willingness [7][8] - The migration of deposits is driven by low interest rates and capital market performance, with the latter being the core driver. The current trend of deposit migration is expected to continue if the capital market remains favorable [16][19] Regional Deposit Contributions - The eastern coastal regions, particularly Jiangsu and Zhejiang, have contributed significantly to the increase in resident deposits, indicating that higher-income groups are more likely to invest rather than consume [24][27] - The wealth management awareness among residents in first-tier cities is expected to facilitate the flow of deposits into equity markets, especially as high-interest term deposits mature in 2025-2026 [25][27]