大有期货：黄金牛市“歇脚”，暂难言顶

Core Viewpoint - The long-term bullish trend of gold is not over, driven by geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar system [2] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, gold prices saw a nearly 20% increase, but from Q2 onwards, prices remained stable with decreased trading activity [1] - The current gold bull market is supported by rising international risks in politics, economy, and military, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 127%, causing international investors to lose confidence in dollar assets [2] Group 2: Stock Market Influence - The performance of the U.S. stock market reflects global risk appetite; when the stock market performs well, gold prices tend to be under pressure, and vice versa [3] - Recent positive performance in global stock markets, including the U.S., China, Japan, and parts of Europe, has led to a subdued gold market [3] - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is becoming evident, with July non-farm payroll data significantly below expectations, indicating potential economic pressure ahead [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is seen as a potential turning point for global financial markets, although the actual impact on gold prices remains uncertain [4] - Despite expectations for rate cuts, the market has not seen a corresponding increase in gold prices, as financial markets have benefited from a loose monetary policy [4] - As the effects of tariffs become more pronounced, inflation in the U.S. is expected to rise, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy execution and potentially leading to a shift of investment towards gold as a safe haven [4]