Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-20 01:02Group 1: Core Insights - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a recovery, with significant increases in fundraising and a decrease in the first-day loss rate, driven by both internal and external factors [2] - Small-cap stocks show strong first-day performance but tend to decline rapidly thereafter, indicating the importance of early profit-taking [5] - The performance of mid-to-large-cap stocks remains stable initially but may experience significant corrections after six months due to lock-up expirations [4][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - As of August 11, 2025, the total IPO amount reached HKD 129.2 billion, representing a 147% increase compared to the entire year of 2024, with an average fundraising size of HKD 2.4 billion, the highest since 2022 [2] - The first-day average return for IPOs is 15.1%, with a median return of 3.4%, marking the lowest first-day loss rate since 2018 at 28% [2] - The recovery in the IPO market is attributed to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's continuous optimization of listing rules, encouragement from mainland China for companies to list in Hong Kong, tightening of financing in A-shares, and increased regulatory scrutiny on Chinese concept stocks in the U.S. [2] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Strategy - Public investor sentiment plays a crucial role in the performance of small-cap stocks, with stronger sentiment leading to better returns, especially when the clawback mechanism is not triggered [5] - For mid-to-large-cap stocks, the absolute median return remains around zero in the first three months, suggesting the need for careful selection of projects [5] - The presence of cornerstone investors does not significantly influence the performance of IPO projects in the medium to long term, highlighting the importance of in-depth research on individual stocks [6]