ATFX：前瞻美联储会议纪要：美元承压，欧元/美元和黄金迎来机会

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy and Expectations - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% in July, with unusual dissent among members, marking the first time since 1993 that two members opposed a rate cut [1] - There is increasing concern within the Fed regarding economic slowdown, with some officials noting inflation nearing target levels and favoring aggressive easing policies [1] - Market expectations indicate a nearly 90% chance of a rate cut before the September meeting, with an anticipated reduction of about 58 basis points by year-end [1] Group 2: Eurozone Policy and Dollar Dynamics - The European Central Bank has cut the benchmark interest rate eight times since June 2024, with the deposit rate now at 2.0%, and maintained rates in July amid optimistic views on the Eurozone economy [2] - Market expectations for further ECB rate cuts have cooled, with the likelihood of maintaining current rates if economic growth or inflation does not significantly decline [2] - The divergence in policy outlooks between the Fed and ECB has placed relative pressure on the dollar while supporting the euro, potentially making euro-denominated assets more attractive [2] Group 3: Gold Performance and Real Yields - Gold prices surged in 2025 due to global uncertainties and anticipated policy changes, reaching historical highs of around $3,500 per ounce in April [3] - Recent expectations of Fed rate cuts have kept gold prices in the $3,300 - $3,400 range, with the strong performance linked to declining real yields as inflation slows [3] - The attractiveness of gold increases when real rates turn negative, with current 10-year U.S. Treasury yields around 4.2% and core inflation near 3%, leading to a slight positive real yield [4] Group 4: Central Bank Gold Reserves - In the first half of 2025, central banks increased gold reserves by over 410 tons, providing structural support for gold prices [4] - Potential hawkish signals from the Fed could lead to a decline in gold prices to around $3,260 - $3,270 per ounce, while a dovish stance could push prices back up towards $3,440 - $3,450 [4]