Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-20 01:20Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that due to weak smartphone demand and rising raw material costs, the adjusted net profit forecast for Xiaomi Group-W (01810) for 2025 has been lowered by 5.9% to 46.139 billion yuan, while the profit forecast for 2026 remains unchanged [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.0 times for 2025 and 18.5 times for 2026, with a target price of 70.0 HKD, implying a potential upside of 33.6% [1] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, the adjusted net profit exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 1159.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%, slightly below expectations by 1.7%, while the adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.831 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.4%, exceeding expectations by 6.4% [2] - The growth in IoT business revenue was a key driver, alongside better-than-expected automotive gross margins [2] Group 3 - In Q2 2025, Xiaomi's smartphone shipments increased by 0.6% year-on-year to 42.4 million units, maintaining a global market share of 14.7%, ranking third [3] - Market share improvements were noted in Southeast Asia, Europe, Latin America, and Africa, with increases of 1.6 percentage points, 3.4 percentage points, 1.0 percentage point, and 2.7 percentage points respectively [3] - The ASP (average selling price) of smartphones decreased by 2.7% year-on-year to 1,073 yuan, while the smartphone gross margin fell by 0.7 percentage points to 11.5% due to a higher proportion of low-margin products [3] Group 4 - IoT revenue grew by 44.7% year-on-year to 38.712 billion yuan in Q2 2025, driven by significant growth in major appliances, wearables, and tablets, with air conditioner shipments exceeding 5 million units [4] - The IoT gross margin decreased by 2.7 percentage points to 22.5% due to the impact of the "618" promotional event, but it remained at a good level [4] - Internet business revenue increased by 10.1% year-on-year to 9.097 billion yuan, with a gross margin decline of 3.0 percentage points to 75.4%, attributed to changes in advertising revenue structure [4] Group 5 - In Q2 2025, the company delivered 81,300 vehicles, with an ASP of 253,700 yuan, and the gross margin increased by 3.27 percentage points to 26.4%, primarily due to economies of scale and increased deliveries of the Ultra model [5] - The company is optimistic about the profit elasticity from automotive order deliveries and the long-term ecological value of its "people, vehicles, and home" strategy [5]