陈果：市场目前还处于震荡慢牛状态中

Core Viewpoint - The current market trend is characterized as a "confidence reassessment bull market," initiated by the A-share reversal on September 24, 2024, driven by the resilience of the Chinese economy [1] Market Conditions - The market is currently in a slow bull phase, but dynamics may change, especially if the rapid rise in the third quarter leads to increased volatility in the latter half of the fourth quarter [1] - A strong signal is needed to significantly raise profit expectations, which requires ongoing evaluation [1] Industry Insights - Concerns regarding the long profit cycles of hard technology companies and potential valuation overextension are present, but it is premature to declare that overextension has occurred [1] - The issue of valuation divergence in the semiconductor sector has been ongoing since around 2019, during a significant bull market [1] - The core of risk assessment lies not in current valuation levels but in whether actual industry progress aligns with market expectations [1] Strategic Outlook - There is a need for strategic optimism regarding domestic substitution and self-control in the industry [1] - Investors must closely monitor the actual pace and progress of industry substitution [1] Sector Analysis - In the context of manufacturing upgrades, past experiences show that not all upgrades have translated into profit increases, and smooth consumption upgrades and internal circulation are crucial [1] - The new energy sector is highlighted as a key focus for countering involution policies, with significant differentiation within sub-industries [1] - Some sub-industries face severe overcapacity and require substantial time or strong policy intervention for profit recovery, while others may see significant improvement opportunities [1]