联储降息预期升温，为何金价不涨反跌？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Vice Chair, Michelle Bowman, supports three interest rate cuts this year and calls for starting cuts in the September meeting [2] - Market expectations indicate a likelihood of the Fed starting a rate cut cycle in 2025, with a focus on timing and magnitude [2] - Recent dovish signals from multiple Fed officials have bolstered market expectations for rate cuts, providing support for gold prices [2] Group 2 - Generally, Fed rate cuts reduce the yield on dollar-denominated assets, diminishing the dollar's attractiveness and driving funds into the gold market, which can lead to an increase in gold prices [4] - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, approximately 1.27 times the projected nominal GDP for 2024, indicating a dangerous level of debt and potential fiscal imbalance [4] - The unexpected cooling of the recent non-farm payroll data and rising inflation have weakened rate cut expectations, putting pressure on gold prices, while the return of "stagflation" narratives opens up mid-term upside potential [4] Group 3 - The current geopolitical situation remains uncertain, with the potential for both upward and downward pressure on gold prices depending on developments in global tensions [4] - The gold ETF fund (159937) and its associated funds offer low-cost, diversified trading options, allowing investors to participate in gold investments with a low entry barrier [5] - Long-term, gold's value is expected to rise in line with the growth of credit money supply and its role in hedging against tail risks in asset portfolios [5]