鲍威尔两难抉择：杰克逊霍尔年会前夕，市场在期待与担忧中徘徊

Core Insights - The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is a key event for observing Federal Reserve dynamics, with a focus on Chairman Powell's speech on August 22 [2][7] - Powell faces a dilemma between continuing anti-inflation measures and addressing employment concerns, amid mixed economic data [2][7] Economic Data Summary - July non-farm payrolls showed only 73,000 new jobs, significantly below market expectations, with a three-month average job growth of approximately 35,000 [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.9% month-on-month in July, the largest increase in nearly three years, driven by tariffs and supply chain costs [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI at 3.1%, slightly above the Fed's 2% target, but overall inflation remains moderate [2] Market Expectations - Investors anticipate a potential 25 basis point rate cut at the September policy meeting, although recent wholesale price increases have tempered these expectations [3] - The focus is on how Powell will communicate future policy directions, with emphasis on data-driven decision-making [3] Policy Framework Review - The Fed is reassessing its policy strategies and communication methods, with expectations for Powell to announce the latest results of the monetary policy framework evaluation at Jackson Hole [3] - The previous framework introduced a "flexible average inflation target," but recent inflation trends may lead the Fed to reconsider this approach [3] Historical Performance Insights - Historically, U.S. stocks have performed well during Jackson Hole week, with a median increase of 0.8% since 2009, and only five instances of declines [4] - U.S. Treasury returns during this period have also been positive, with a median return of 0.2% for long-term bonds [6] Current Market Sentiment - Investors are preparing for potential volatility ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting, with recent dissent among Fed governors indicating increased policy divergence [6] - There are concerns that Powell's acknowledgment of a weakening labor market could pressure stock valuations, which are currently at historical highs [6][7]