中金：维持海天国际跑赢行业评级 目标价29.5港元

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Haitian International (01882) at 3.64 billion and 4.067 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to 8.8x and 7.8x P/E for those years, indicating a 35% upside potential from the target price of 29.5 HKD, which corresponds to 11.8x and 10.5x P/E for 2025 and 2026 [1] Group 1: Revenue Performance - In 1H25, the company's revenue reached 9.018 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.5%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.712 billion yuan, also up by 12.6% [1] - The growth in overseas markets was a significant contributor, with overseas revenue increasing by 34.7% year-on-year, while domestic sales grew by only 0.3% due to a high base and structural slowdown in domestic demand [2] - The sales of injection molding machines increased by 12.1% to 8.637 billion yuan, with parts and services sales rising by 21.0% to 381 million yuan [2] Group 2: Profitability and Efficiency - The company's gross margin in 1H25 was 32.8%, up by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower raw material prices, while the net profit margin remained stable at 19.0% [3] - Operating cash flow for 1H25 was 1.402 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 197 million yuan year-on-year, indicating improved working capital management [3] Group 3: Global Expansion Strategy - The company is deepening its investment in overseas capacity and market development, with overseas revenue accounting for 42.3% of total revenue in 1H25, an increase of 6.9 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company has been hosting open house events at its global factories, attracting over 3,000 clients, partners, and investors from more than 20 countries [4] - With the completion of the second phase of factories in Serbia and India expected in 2025, the company anticipates further increases in its overseas revenue share [4]