卓创资讯：前三季度行情弱势四季度猪肉上下游产品走势如何？

Core Viewpoint - The pork industry is experiencing a slight decline in prices for both upstream and downstream products in the first three quarters of 2025, with limited price drops for live pigs and fresh pork, while frozen pork prices are significantly affected by weakened demand due to reduced price advantages [1] Price Trends - From January to August 2025, domestic prices for live pigs and fresh pork showed narrow fluctuations after a decline, while frozen pork prices, particularly for domestic frozen No. 2 pork, experienced a more pronounced decrease compared to imported frozen No. 2 pork [1] - As of August 19, 2025, the price of frozen pork has been notably impacted by the lower prices of fresh pork, diminishing the price advantage of frozen products [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The primary reasons for the low prices of live pigs and fresh pork in the first three quarters of 2025 are abundant supply and demand falling short of expectations, attributed to the continued expansion of breeding sows in 2024 and an increase in suitable pig sources by 2025 [1] - The adjustment in residents' dietary structure and the main consumer groups' consumption patterns have also contributed to the subdued demand [1] Future Outlook - It is anticipated that in the fourth quarter of 2025, prices for live pigs and fresh pork will continue to operate at low levels, with a slight increase expected, while frozen pork prices are likely to experience further declines [1] - The domestic breeding sow inventory reached a high level by July 2025, indicating a sufficient supply of pigs based on their growth cycle [1] - The import volume of pork and pork by-products remained relatively stable in the first three quarters, with slaughter enterprises showing a slight increase in inventory levels [1] Overall Industry Assessment - The pork industry is expected to maintain a low level of product prices in the fourth quarter of 2025, with live pigs and fresh pork prices showing slight increases and frozen pork prices continuing to decline [1] - The profitability of the industry chain remains under pressure due to the combination of ample supply and demand not meeting expectations [1]