3 6 Ke·2025-08-20 03:30Core Insights - The humanoid robot sector has seen significant positive developments since July, including acquisitions and new product launches, indicating a potential shift towards commercialization [1][2] - The market for humanoid robots is projected to grow substantially, with various institutions providing differing forecasts for market size and sales volume by 2030 and beyond [3][4][5] - The humanoid robot industry is currently in its early stages, with expectations of reaching a market size in the hundreds of billions within the next 5-10 years, and potentially exceeding one trillion in the long term [4][5] Market Predictions - Donghai Securities predicts global humanoid robot sales of 1 million units by 2030, corresponding to a market size of 150 billion RMB [3] - Huachuang Securities estimates sales of 2.16 million units by 2030, leading to a market size of approximately 350.6 billion RMB [5] - Goldman Sachs forecasts 1.4 million units sold by 2035, with a market size of 38 billion USD, while UBS predicts 2 million units and a market size between 30-50 billion USD [3][5] Industry Dynamics - The humanoid robot industry is characterized by a mix of established companies entering the market to create new growth avenues, which is seen as a divergence from traditional business models [2] - The capital market is primarily focused on hardware components of humanoid robots, as these have clearer valuation metrics compared to software and algorithmic components [9][10] Component Breakdown - Humanoid robots can be divided into three functional modules: perception layer, decision layer, and execution layer, each comprising various components [8][9] - The execution system is estimated to account for 53.2% of the value, while the perception system accounts for 7.3%, and other components collectively make up 39.5% [10] - Key components include planetary roller screws (19% value share), frameless torque motors (17%), and reducers (13%) [12][21] Beneficiary Companies - Over 80 listed companies have announced plans to produce or are already producing components for humanoid robots, with a significant concentration in the automotive and machinery sectors [14][15] - Companies like 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology) and 五洲新春 (Wuzhou New Spring) are actively developing planetary roller screws and other key components for humanoid robots [16][18] - The market for reducers is competitive, with companies like 绿的谐波 (Green Harmonic) and 双环传动 (Double Ring Transmission) leading in the production of harmonic and RV reducers [22][23] Sensor Technology - Force/moment sensors, particularly six-dimensional sensors, are crucial for humanoid robots to perceive their own movement states, with a current market size of approximately 224 million USD [24] - Companies like 柯力传感 (Keli Sensor) and 安培龙 (Amperelong) are focusing on developing these sensors for humanoid applications [25] Motor Technology - The hollow cup motor market is projected to grow, with companies like 鸣志电器 (Mingzhi Electric) and 拓邦股份 (Topband) leading in production and development [26] - The global market for hollow cup motors was valued at approximately 5.1 billion RMB in 2022, with significant competition from foreign manufacturers [26]