对美出口暴跌10.1%！日本七月出口创四年最大降幅

Core Viewpoint - Japan's exports in July experienced a significant decline, marking the largest year-on-year drop in four years, primarily due to weakened exports to the United States, raising concerns about the country's economic growth prospects [1][3][4]. Export Performance - In July, Japan's exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of a 2.1% decline, and representing the largest drop since February 2021 [1][4]. - Exports to the U.S. saw a notable decrease of 10.1%, although this was an improvement from June's 11.4% drop [4][6]. - The automotive sector was particularly hard hit, with exports of cars and parts plummeting by 28.4% and 17.4%, respectively, further exacerbating the decline in overall export figures [3][4]. Trade Agreement Impact - A trade agreement reached on July 22 between Japan and the U.S. included a 15% tariff on certain goods, with automotive tariffs reduced from 25% to 15%. However, the impact of these tariffs will be reflected in August's data, while July's figures still show the ongoing pressure from tariffs [4][6]. Economic Growth Challenges - The decline in exports poses new challenges for Japan's economic growth, which had previously shown resilience with a GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 1.2% year-on-year in Q2, driven by net exports [5][6]. - Continued export weakness raises concerns about Japan's ability to sustain economic expansion, especially as domestic consumption remains sluggish [6]. Monetary Policy Implications - The persistent decline in exports is expected to influence the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions, with market expectations leaning towards a cautious stance in the upcoming policy meeting on September 19 [6].