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TOWNGAS SMART ENERGY(1083.HK)：MAINTAIN BUY ALTHOUGH RENEWABLES SEE LOWER POWER TARIFF
Ge Long Hui·2025-08-20 03:48

Core Viewpoint - Towngas Smart Energy (TGSE) reported a 2% year-on-year growth in earnings to HK$758 million in 1H25, which was 2% below expectations. The company anticipates a 32% increase in earnings in 2H25, driven by higher profits from its renewable business [1][5]. Financial Performance - The profit after tax from the natural gas business increased by 6% year-on-year to HK$527 million, with flat gas sales volume as residential growth was offset by a decline in commercial sales. The dollar margin improved from RMB0.56/m³ in 1H24 to RMB0.57/m³ in 1H25 [1]. - New connections decreased by 16% year-on-year to 0.38 million households in 1H25, leading to a 30% drop in profit after tax for this segment to HK$219 million, with profit margin contracting from 38.5% in 1H24 to 35.1% in 1H25 [2]. - The renewable business's net profit grew by only 5% year-on-year to HK$172 million in 1H25 [2]. Renewable Energy Projects - TGSE launched new distributed photovoltaic (PV) projects with a total capacity of 280 MW, resulting in a 44% year-on-year increase in total power generation. However, the unit gross profit decreased by RMB0.04/kWh due to lower power tariffs, leading to an 11% year-on-year increase in operating profit from PV power generation to RMB169 million [3]. Restructuring and Gains - The gain from the disposal of partial stakes in distributed PV projects fell by 15% year-on-year to RMB37 million in 1H25, as only stakes in 120 MW projects were disposed of. Profit from energy and carbon management also decreased by 13% year-on-year to RMB25 million due to a high base in power trading last year [4]. - The restructuring of TGSE's extended business was completed in 1H25, resulting in a HK$100 million gain from the restructuring, with the company now holding only 12% of a joint venture majority-owned by its parent [4]. Future Outlook - The company expects earnings to surge by 32% in 2H25, primarily due to higher profits from the renewable business, as approximately 63% of the renewable business's profit in 2024 was generated in 2H24 [5]. - The target price has been reduced from HK$4.99 to HK$4.77, reflecting cuts in earnings forecasts, with the new target price equating to 9.6 times the estimated P/E for 2025 [5].