惊人相似？“广场协议”后“美元下跌，股市火爆”，接着新美联储主席上任，然后是“黑色星期一”

Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation in the U.S. shows similarities to historical events, particularly the 1985 Plaza Accord, where a significant depreciation of the dollar coincided with rising stock markets, raising concerns about a potential repeat of the "Black Monday" crash of 1987 [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context - The 1985 Plaza Accord led to a dramatic depreciation of the dollar, with a 36.5% drop against the yen and a 30.8% to 36.6% drop against major European currencies over 17 months [2]. - Despite the significant decline in the dollar, the U.S. stock market, particularly the Dow Jones Industrial Average, reached historical highs during this period [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market's confidence during the Plaza Accord era was largely attributed to the credibility of then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who had successfully controlled high inflation prior to the Accord [6]. - The lack of significant increases in import prices, despite the dollar's depreciation, was aided by a drop in international oil prices, which helped to mitigate inflationary pressures [5]. Group 3: Leadership Transition - The transition from Volcker to Alan Greenspan in 1987 marked a critical turning point; Greenspan's inaction when the dollar fell below the key 150 yen level led to renewed selling pressure from Japanese investors [7]. - Rising core CPI inflation rates, which reached 4.5% by October 1987, compounded the market's instability, ultimately contributing to the "Black Monday" crash [7]. Group 4: Hypothetical Scenarios - The report suggests that if Volcker had remained in charge, he would likely have intervened to stabilize the dollar, potentially preventing the market turmoil that led to "Black Monday" [8]. - The personal reputation of the Fed Chairman and the market's confidence in their commitment to anti-inflation policies are critical in maintaining market stability [9].