北新建材(000786):石膏板主业承压 涂料营收同比高增 Q2毛利率环比改善

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to pressure on its gypsum board business, while its paint segment showed significant growth [1][2]. Revenue and Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 13.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.29%, with Q2 revenue at 7.312 billion yuan, down 4.46% year-on-year [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 was 1.930 billion yuan, a decline of 12.85% year-on-year, with Q2 net profit at 1.087 billion yuan, down 21.89% year-on-year [1][2]. - The revenue decline was mainly attributed to the drop in gypsum board and keel business, with Q1 and Q2 revenue growth rates of 5.09% and -4.46%, respectively [2]. Product Performance Summary - Revenue and growth rates for various products in H1 2025 were as follows: gypsum board 6.677 billion yuan (yoy -8.57%), keel 1.137 billion yuan (yoy -10.72%), waterproof membrane 1.720 billion yuan (yoy +0.63%), and paint 2.511 billion yuan (yoy +40.82%) [2]. - The company's core gypsum board business faced declining demand and intense market competition, while the "two wings" businesses (waterproof membranes and paints) continued to grow [2]. Profitability and Cost Analysis - The company's gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 30.35%, a decrease of 0.59 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to declining demand and increased market competition [3][4]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 improved to 31.55%, an increase of 2.61 percentage points from Q1, attributed to a price increase for gypsum board products implemented on March 5 [4]. - The company’s expense ratio for H1 2025 was 13.37%, an increase of 0.57 percentage points year-on-year, with specific increases in sales, management, and research expenses [4]. Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned as a leader in the gypsum board industry, actively expanding into home decoration and rural markets while developing high-end products [5]. - The company is expected to accelerate growth in its waterproof and paint businesses, with projected revenues for 2025-2027 of 27.609 billion yuan, 30.037 billion yuan, and 32.422 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 6.93%, 8.79%, and 7.94%, respectively [5]. - Forecasted net profits for the same period are 3.956 billion yuan, 4.426 billion yuan, and 4.925 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 8.48%, 11.87%, and 11.28% [5].