欧盟 9 月新制裁剑指俄能源？影子船队能否破局？

Group 1: EU Sanctions and Internal Divisions - The EU's 19th round of sanctions against Russia will be officially announced in September, focusing on three main areas [3] - Internal divisions within the EU are evident, with Hungary and Slovakia requesting a three-year transition period due to concerns over energy security, while Germany and France advocate for immediate implementation [3] Group 2: Russia's Countermeasures - Russia has developed a multi-layered defense system in response to sanctions, with Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov stating that EU sanctions will ultimately harm the EU's own economy [4] - The sanctions include a ban on importing Russian oil derivatives processed in third countries and an expansion of sanctions on "shadow fleets," with 342 related vessels already blacklisted [4] - Russia's energy exports are shifting strategically, with a 38% year-on-year increase in oil exports to China by mid-2025, and energy revenues rising by 12% compared to 2022 [5] Group 3: Global Supply Chain Impacts - The sanctions are causing a domino effect on global supply chains, with Europe experiencing self-inflicted economic consequences [6] - Third countries are showing strategic oscillation, balancing between cooperation with Russia and compliance with EU sanctions [6] Group 4: Future Strategic Considerations - The potential for a multilateral security dialogue mechanism is being explored, including a "China-Russia-EU energy roundtable" to discuss natural gas pricing and grid interconnection [6] - The use of the Chinese yuan in trade with Russia and the EU is being promoted to reduce reliance on the US dollar [6]