金老虎：美元劲升压金价，降息疑云绕九月，俄美谈罢避险淡

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily driven by expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policies, a strong US dollar, and easing geopolitical tensions, leading to a cautious market sentiment [3][4][5][6][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Market sentiment is heavily influenced by the upcoming speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, with expectations of a potential rate cut in September [3]. - Concerns arise from Powell possibly signaling a "neutral hawkish" stance, emphasizing inflation resilience and policy flexibility, which could dampen overly optimistic easing expectations [3]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the rate cut path further exacerbate market uncertainty, impacting gold's attractiveness [3][4]. Group 2: Strength of the US Dollar - The US dollar index closed at 98.2, reflecting a strong dollar that inversely affects gold prices, as a stronger dollar increases the cost of gold for holders of other currencies [4]. - Positive economic indicators, such as a 0.5% month-on-month increase in US retail sales for July, contribute to the dollar's strength and subsequently suppress gold's rebound potential [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risk Easing - A recent summit between US and Russian leaders has alleviated some concerns regarding escalating geopolitical conflicts, reducing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Decreased attention to Middle Eastern tensions and a decline in oil prices due to OPEC+ production expectations further diminish gold's appeal as a crisis hedge [5]. Group 4: Economic Data Contradictions - Mixed economic data, including a weak non-farm payroll increase of 73,000 in July and a core CPI rise of 3.1%, creates a divided market sentiment regarding Federal Reserve policy [6]. - The youth unemployment rate rising to 17.8% raises concerns about consumer demand, although inflation resilience partially offsets these worries [6]. Group 5: Long-term Structural Factors - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with UBS raising its 2026 gold price target to $3,600 due to ongoing macroeconomic risks and strong investment demand [7]. - The recent price drop is viewed as a result of short-term sentiment fluctuations, with market participants opting to take profits or hedge against potential downturns [7].