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Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by the strength of the US dollar, geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policies, particularly ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium [1][3][9]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - As of August 20, spot gold is trading around $3315.04 per ounce, having dropped 0.5% to close at $3315.45 on the previous day, reaching a low of $3314.80, close to the 100-day moving average support level of $3311.15 [1]. - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to a 0.15% increase in the US dollar index, which rose to 98.27, making gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies [5]. - UBS has raised its gold price target to $3600 by March 2026, citing ongoing macroeconomic risks in the US, a decline in dollar usage, and strong investment demand, suggesting that the current drop in gold prices may be temporary [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is a key driver of gold price volatility, with traders estimating an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, which typically benefits gold due to lower opportunity costs [3]. - Market expectations are uncertain regarding Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole, with concerns that he may downplay the likelihood of a September rate cut, potentially strengthening the dollar and exerting downward pressure on gold [3][10]. - The upcoming release of the July Fed meeting minutes is anticipated to provide insights into the US economic outlook, which could further influence gold prices depending on the Fed's hawkish or dovish stance [3][9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical factors are also influencing gold's safe-haven appeal, with President Trump expressing hopes for a resolution to the Ukraine conflict, which could diminish gold's attractiveness as a safe asset if peace negotiations progress [6]. - However, uncertainties surrounding the willingness of parties to reach an agreement may continue to support gold prices, as any breakdown in negotiations could reignite risk aversion among investors [6]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Data - Recent macroeconomic data presents a mixed picture, with July housing starts increasing by 5.2% to 1.428 million units, while building permits fell by 2.8% to a five-year low of 1.35 million units, indicating a cautious outlook among builders [7]. - The yield curve's bear steepening reflects rising inflation expectations, which negatively impacts gold as higher yields attract funds to bonds over non-yielding assets [8]. - Stock market performance, particularly the decline in tech stocks like Nvidia by 3.5%, is also affecting gold sentiment, as investors hedge against potential hawkish signals from the Fed [8].