Core Viewpoint - The core variable of U.S. trade policy remains Trump himself, with a highly controversial tariff strategy expected to be prevalent in the coming years, necessitating countries to become the "greatest common divisor" connecting different trade circles to gain future discourse power [2][23]. Group 1: Trump's Tariff System - Trump's tariff strategy has evolved from targeted "surgical strikes" during his first term to a more comprehensive approach in his second term, characterized by four main components: reciprocal tariffs, punitive tariffs for specific reasons, transshipment tariffs to combat tax avoidance, and industry barriers to protect domestic industries [4][8]. - The "reciprocal tariffs" framework establishes different tariff boundaries for countries, with core countries like the UK and Australia enjoying a baseline tax rate of 10%, while others face rates ranging from 15% to over 25% [5][6]. Group 2: Punitive Tariffs - Punitive tariffs are increasingly used as a core tool for handling diplomatic matters, with various justifications, including combating cross-border crime and exerting geopolitical pressure [8][9]. - The U.S. has raised tariffs on Canadian goods from 25% to 35% due to insufficient cooperation in drug trafficking control, while also imposing additional tariffs on Indian goods due to its purchase of Russian oil [8][9]. Group 3: Transshipment Tariffs - The U.S. has implemented transshipment tariffs to prevent circumvention of tariffs through third countries, imposing a 40% tax rate on goods attempting to bypass tariffs [10][12]. - The challenge lies in the ambiguous definition of "transshipment," which complicates enforcement and necessitates a collaborative regulatory framework with partner countries [12][13]. Group 4: Industry Tariffs - The U.S. has invoked the 232 clause of the Trade Expansion Act to impose high tariffs on strategic industries, aiming to reverse the trend of industrial hollowing and promote domestic manufacturing [16][17]. - Tariffs on steel and aluminum products have been set at 50%, with potential future tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals reaching as high as 300% [17][19]. Group 5: Trade Negotiation Dynamics - Tariffs serve as a preliminary tool in trade negotiations, with the Trump administration relying heavily on verbal agreements, leading to disputes over the interpretation of key terms [20][21]. - The lack of written agreements has resulted in confusion and disagreements in negotiations with countries like Japan and South Korea, affecting the finalization of trade deals [20][21]. Group 6: Economic Impact - The U.S. has entered a high-tariff era, with the average effective tariff rate rising to 18.6%, the highest level since the Great Depression [23]. - The implementation of tariffs has caused fluctuations in import data, with a significant spike in imports prior to tariff enforcement, followed by a decline as companies adjust to the new cost structure [25][28].
宋雪涛：对等关税 未完待续
Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-08-20 05:43