GGII：磷酸铁锂材料产能结构性不足 正启动新一轮扩产

Core Viewpoint - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode material industry is entering a downturn due to oversupply and slowed capacity expansion, but is expected to see a new round of capacity expansion driven by high demand in the energy storage lithium battery sector from H2 2024 to H1 2025 [1] Industry Overview - The effective capacity utilization rate of the LFP cathode material industry remains low, but there is a structural capacity shortage that needs to be addressed through expansion [2] - Some leading companies, such as Hunan Youneng and Dofang Nano, have capacity utilization rates exceeding 90%, while many others struggle to meet quality standards, resulting in lower utilization [2] - The upgrade of LFP products, particularly the third and fourth generation materials, is driving significant growth in production, necessitating the adoption of advanced manufacturing processes [2] Capacity and Utilization Predictions - By H1 2025, China's LFP cathode material shipment volume is expected to reach 1.61 million tons, a 68% year-on-year increase, with effective capacity utilization projected to exceed 70% by 2025 and 75% by 2027 [1][4] Capacity Elimination Factors - Several factors are leading to the elimination of LFP cathode material capacity, including: 1. The green electricity policy driving production to regions with lower electricity costs [3] 2. Companies unable to keep pace with product upgrades facing potential closure [3] 3. Financial difficulties leading to the exit of some companies from the market [3] 4. Inefficient production line designs resulting in high energy consumption and inability to meet new product standards [3] Seasonal Trends - The LFP cathode material industry experiences seasonal fluctuations, with lower shipments in the first half of the year and a peak in the second half, where the latter typically sees about 151% of the former's shipment volume [5] International Expansion - Due to trade barriers, overseas capacity for LFP cathode materials is insufficient, with only 30,000 tons established by Chinese companies by H1 2025, while planned overseas capacity aims to reach 580,000 tons [8] Future Expansion Characteristics - The next round of LFP cathode material expansion is expected to focus on: 1. Companies with product advantages leading the expansion [9] 2. Expansion primarily in western regions and overseas, with limited growth in eastern areas [9] 3. High-end products, particularly those utilizing advanced production lines [9] 4. Rapid scaling of equipment, with a focus on larger kilns [9] Impact on Equipment Manufacturers - The expansion in the LFP cathode material sector is likely to benefit leading equipment manufacturers, while many smaller firms may struggle to secure orders [10] - Companies with product, quality, and scale advantages are expected to continue winning contracts in a competitive environment [10]