英国通胀“狂飙”至18个月高点！央行降息梦碎？

Core Insights - July inflation in the UK unexpectedly accelerated to 3.8%, the fastest rate in a year and a half, impacting expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England [1][3] - The inflation rate exceeded the 3.7% forecast by economists and was higher than June's 3.6% [3] - Key drivers of inflation included rising transportation costs, particularly airfares, and automotive fuel prices, with food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increasing by 4.9% year-on-year for the fourth consecutive month [3] Economic Indicators - Service sector inflation rose to 5% in July, up from 4.7% in June, indicating significant price pressures within the economy [3] - The Bank of England faces dual challenges of inflation rebound and sluggish economic growth, having recently cut rates by 25 basis points to 4% while raising inflation forecasts [3][4] - The anticipated inflation for September is projected to reach 4%, double the Bank's target of 2%, with expectations that it will only return to target by 2027 [3] Employment and Economic Growth - There are signs of a weakening job market in the UK, with rising unemployment rates and a decline in employment numbers from May to June, which may hinder wage growth [4] - The UK GDP growth for the second quarter was only 0.3%, a slowdown from 0.7% in the first quarter, influenced by global commodity stockpiling that had previously boosted exports [4] Central Bank Policy Outlook - The unexpected inflation data diminishes the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England in September, with core inflation pressures raising doubts about further policy easing this year [4] - Some analysts suggest that the Bank may overlook certain one-off factors driving price increases and could still consider another rate cut within the year [5]