英国7月CPI同比3.8%，攀升至18个月高点

Core Insights - The UK's inflation rate rose to 3.8% in July, the highest in 18 months, driven by increases in airline ticket prices, hotel costs, and fuel prices, which diminishes expectations for a near-term interest rate cut by the central bank [1] - Service sector inflation, a key indicator of underlying price pressures, increased to 5%, surpassing the Bank of England's forecast of 4.9%, raising concerns among policymakers about persistent domestic price pressures [1] Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased from 3.6% in June to 3.8% in July, marking the fastest growth since January 2024 [1] - Food inflation accelerated from 4.5% to 4.9%, the highest since February 2024, indicating that businesses are passing on additional costs from tax and minimum wage increases to consumers [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England have significantly cooled, with only a one-third probability for a cut in November and a 50% chance by year-end [3] Group 2 - The inflation rebound is creating political pressure for Chancellor Reeves and Prime Minister Starmer, who promised to improve living standards for "working people," as the recovery of real incomes is fading [4] - Critics attribute the current predicament to the tax increase budget proposal in October, which is believed to be driving up inflation while weakening the job market [4] - The renewed inflation poses new challenges for consumers attempting to restore their purchasing power, making the government's promised improvements in living standards seem increasingly distant [4]