降息预期“降温”，英国最新通胀数据反弹

Core Insights - The UK CPI data for July shows a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, exceeding market expectations and the previous value of 3.6% [1] - Core CPI also rose by 3.8%, surpassing both the forecast and prior value of 3.7% [1] - Following the data release, the British pound strengthened against the euro and experienced fluctuations against the US dollar [1] Economic Context - Prior to the data release, many market institutions anticipated a rebound in the UK CPI, and the actual results exceeded these expectations [1] - The Bank of England had previously predicted inflation would rise further, reaching a peak of 4% in September before gradually declining to the target rate of 2% [1] - Recent economic data indicates a 1.2% year-on-year GDP growth and a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth for the second quarter, both above market expectations [1] Monetary Policy Implications - Market institutions are now forecasting that the Bank of England may pause interest rate cuts in the upcoming September meeting to assess whether inflation is exerting sustained upward pressure [1]