国家粮食和物资储备数据中心王辽卫：生物柴油发展对全球油脂油料价格影响巨大

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum highlighted the significant role of the edible vegetable oil market in China, noting that while imports have decreased, they still dominate the market. The overall price of vegetable oils in China has increased due to global supply-demand balance, but remains within a historically reasonable range. Future market trends will be influenced by tariff policies, soybean import conditions in Q4, palm oil production increases, and biodiesel industry policies [1][2]. Supply Analysis - The global production of nine major vegetable oils is on the rise, with an expected output of 235 million tons for the 2025/2026 season, an increase of 6.37 million tons year-on-year. This includes a production increase of 2.65 million tons for soybean oil, 1.79 million tons for palm oil, and 1.65 million tons for sunflower seed oil [1]. Demand Analysis - For the 2024/2025 season, global vegetable oil consumption is projected to reach 224 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3%. This includes a 2.3% increase in edible consumption and a 2.7% increase in industrial consumption. By the 2025/2026 season, total consumption is expected to rise to 230 million tons. Notably, industrial consumption is anticipated to account for 28% of total consumption, up from 22.2% in the 2010/2011 season, indicating a significant shift in consumption structure [2].