Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-20 07:51Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects China Resources Beer (00291) to see a moderate acceleration in its beer business in the second half of 2025, with policy impacts normalizing gradually; however, the liquor business may still pose potential drag in the second half [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised the 12-month target price for China Resources Beer to HKD 37 from HKD 35, based on an unchanged 19 times the estimated 2026 price-to-earnings ratio, discounted for 0.5 years; the rating remains "Buy" [1] - The report indicates that China Resources Beer's core EBITDA exceeded expectations in the first half of this year due to favorable cost conditions and improved operational efficiency; despite ongoing macroeconomic instability and persistent deflation risks, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the company's strong execution in premiumization, market share growth, and efficiency improvements [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has raised its recurring earnings per share forecasts for China Resources Beer for 2025 to 2027 by 5% to 6%, reflecting several factors: 1) For the beer business, sales forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been increased by 0.4% to 2.3% due to ongoing relief in raw material costs and effective control of selling expenses, leading to a better gross margin outlook [2] - The firm expects recurring sales and administrative expenses to decrease, while recurring administrative expenses are anticipated to rise; thus, the recurring EBITDA estimates for 2025 to 2027 have been raised by 6.1% to 6.3% [2] - For the liquor business, due to negative policy impacts, sales forecasts have been lowered by 2% to 6.7%, but gross margins are expected to improve; sales and administrative expenses are projected to increase due to rising administrative costs, offset by a decrease in selling expenses [2] - Overall, Goldman Sachs now anticipates a 3.2% sales growth and an 11.9% increase in recurring EBITDA for the group in 2025, with an 18.2% growth in recurring EBITDA for the beer segment [2]