Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-20 07:56Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects China Resources Beer (00291) to see a moderate acceleration in its beer business in the second half of 2025, with policy impacts gradually normalizing; however, the liquor business may still pose a potential drag in the second half [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised the 12-month target price for China Resources Beer to HKD 37 from HKD 35, based on an unchanged 19 times the estimated 2026 price-to-earnings ratio, discounted for 0.5 years; the "Buy" rating is reiterated [1] - The report indicates that China Resources Beer's core EBITDA exceeded expectations in the first half of this year due to favorable costs and improved operational efficiency; despite ongoing macroeconomic instability and persistent deflation risks, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the company's strong execution in premiumization, market share growth, and efficiency improvements [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has raised its recurring earnings per share forecast for China Resources Beer for 2025 to 2027 by 5% to 6%, reflecting factors such as a 0.4% to 2.3% increase in beer sales estimates due to easing raw material costs and effective sales expense control, leading to a better gross margin outlook [2] - For the liquor business, Goldman Sachs has lowered sales estimates by 2% to 6.7% due to negative policy impacts, but expects an improvement in gross margins; while administrative expenses are anticipated to rise, they will be offset by a decrease in sales expenses [2] - Overall, Goldman Sachs now expects a 3.2% sales growth and an 11.9% increase in recurring EBITDA for 2025, with beer recurring EBITDA projected to grow by 18.2% [2]