东兴证券：银行净利增速环比提升 预计下半年息差边际企稳

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates that the profitability of commercial banks in the first half of 2025 has shown marginal improvement, with net profit reaching 1.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, but an improvement of 1.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter of 2025 [1][2]. Profit Performance - In the first half of 2025, commercial banks achieved a net profit of 1.24 trillion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 1.1 percentage points from Q1 2025 [2]. - State-owned banks, joint-stock banks, and city commercial banks saw year-on-year net profit growth rates of 1.1%, -2.0%, and -1.1%, respectively, with quarter-on-quarter improvements of 1 percentage point, 2.6 percentage points, and 5.6 percentage points [2]. - The second quarter saw a recovery in the bond market, leading to a reduction in floating losses and potential for investment income realization [2]. Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin for the first half of 2025 slightly decreased by 1 basis point to 1.42%, with a year-on-year decline of 13 basis points [2]. - The net interest margins for state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 1.31%, 1.55%, 1.37%, and 1.58%, respectively [2]. Scale - As of the end of June, commercial banks' total assets and loans grew by 8.9% and 7.5% year-on-year, with quarter-on-quarter increases of 1.7 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points [3]. - The growth in total assets was primarily driven by bond investments and other non-loan assets [3]. Asset Quality - By the end of June, the non-performing loan balance was 3.43 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.4 billion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.49%, down 2 basis points quarter-on-quarter and 7 basis points year-on-year [4]. - The provision coverage ratio improved to 211.97%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points [4]. Investment Recommendations - The marginal improvement in net profit growth, stable asset expansion, slight decline in net interest margin, and robust asset quality suggest a positive outlook for the banking sector [5]. - The report recommends focusing on joint-stock banks with historical risk clearance and low valuations, as well as quality regional banks benefiting from growth policies [5].