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AI阴云下业绩为王!大摩预警:美股SaaS板块恐“冰火两重天”
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-20 08:49

Group 1: Industry Outlook - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the disruptive impact of AI continues to suppress sentiment in the software industry, and Q2 earnings reports from SaaS companies are unlikely to alleviate concerns [1] - Individual stock performance is expected to diverge, with companies that exceed expectations and raise guidance likely to see significant stock price increases, while those with weak key metrics or slowing growth will heighten market concerns about AI competition or business models [1] Group 2: Company Ratings and Expectations - Morgan Stanley maintains a "Hold" rating on Box (BOX.US), expecting strong Q1 performance to continue into Q2, with potential for significant upward revisions to full-year guidance due to conservative expectations and a stable macroeconomic environment [1] - Morgan Stanley also holds a "Hold" rating on DocuSign (DOCU.US) with a target price of $86, anticipating that Q2 billings may exceed expectations due to a low base effect, but expressing caution regarding potential disappointments in Q3 and the overall outlook for the second half of the year [1] - For Asana (ASAN.US), Morgan Stanley maintains a "Reduce" rating with a target price of $13, noting that while Q2 performance may be stable, growth rates in the second half could slow to mid to high single digits, leading to stock price fluctuations if guidance does not show significant adjustments [2] - Morgan Stanley gives Zoom (ZM.US) a "Hold" rating, expecting Q2 results to significantly exceed market expectations, but indicating that sustained accelerated growth will require more time, thus maintaining a cautious outlook until the company's prospects become clearer [2]