长剧放飞，市场能否再现上行的美？

Core Viewpoint - The long drama market is experiencing a significant downturn, but recent regulatory changes may provide opportunities for recovery and growth in the industry [1][2][29]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The newly released "21 Regulations" from the broadcasting authority signal a systematic loosening of restrictions, emphasizing quality over quantity [3][11]. - Key changes include the removal of the 40-episode limit, allowing for more complex narratives and epic dramas [6][12]. - Subject matter restrictions have been eased, with increased quotas for historical dramas and no limits on adaptations from Japanese and Korean IPs [7][12]. - The seasonal broadcast mechanism has been relaxed, eliminating the one-year gap requirement between seasons, facilitating the development of series like "Longing for Love" [8][12]. - Review processes have been expedited, with proposals for "simultaneous review and broadcast" and a 30-day feedback timeline, significantly shortening the time from completion to airing [9][12]. - New commercial models are being explored, including pilot advertising and encouraging "one drama, multiple stars" collaborations [10][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The changes aim to reduce institutional constraints and enhance creative freedom, allowing the market to play a larger role in resource allocation [11][29]. - The cancellation of the 40-episode cap may lead to a resurgence of classic long dramas, while the removal of the seasonal gap alleviates concerns about character appeal fading during long waits [12][15]. - The introduction of new IPs, particularly from overseas, is expected to invigorate the market, which has been struggling with a lack of original content [12][15]. - The long drama sector is seen as entering a critical moment for transformation, with the potential for seasonal and IP-driven dramas to gain traction [2][15]. Group 3: Industry Reactions - Following the announcement of the new regulations, stocks of several drama production companies have surged, indicating renewed investor confidence [13][14]. - Industry professionals are expressing optimism about the potential revival of previously shelved projects, particularly historical dramas and longer series [14][15]. - However, there are concerns about the challenges of adapting to the new regulatory environment, particularly regarding the shift to a more dynamic content creation model [19][20]. Group 4: Short Drama Sector - Concurrently, the short drama platform Hongguo has implemented stricter regulations, focusing on controlling entry and promoting a more industrialized approach [25][26]. - The contrasting strategies of the long and short drama sectors reflect a broader industry trend towards necessary change, with long dramas embracing market freedom and short dramas tightening platform control [26][28]. - The dual approach aims to elevate the overall quality of productions while managing risks associated with lower-quality content [27][28].