国信证券：国内餐饮行业从追求规模扩张过渡至效率提升增长新阶段

Core Insights - The overall growth momentum in the restaurant industry is weak, with a reported cumulative restaurant revenue growth of 4.3% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, and a mere 0.9% growth in June, indicating a decline in growth rates [1] - The new growth engines for the industry are the lower-tier markets and the rapidly growing takeaway business, as consumer preferences shift towards value for money and health-conscious options [1][2] - Domestic restaurant leaders are transitioning from scale expansion to efficiency improvement, focusing on optimizing single-store operations and enhancing supply chain value [3] Industry Trends - Trend 1: The industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with lower-tier markets and online services emerging as new growth engines. The June data shows a negative growth of 0.4% for large-scale restaurants, highlighting the overall weak growth momentum [1] - Trend 2: Health-conscious dining and value for money are becoming key consumer trends, necessitating adjustments in restaurant branding and operations to meet the evolving demands of consumers [1] Lessons from Japan - The experience of Japanese restaurant leaders post-bubble economy shows that even in a declining market, strong companies can expand and provide substantial returns to investors. The focus on cost-effectiveness and supply chain efficiency is crucial for success [2] Domestic Leaders' Strategies - Domestic restaurant leaders are adopting strategies similar to those of Japanese counterparts, such as improving operational efficiency and enhancing supply chain management. However, they also benefit from the potential of the takeaway market and the strong consumption vitality in lower-tier cities [3] Investment Value of Leading Brands - Companies like Xiaocaiyuan, Green Tea Group, Guoquan, and Jiumaojiu are expected to show significant profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 7.7 billion, 5.1 billion, 4.3 billion, and a focus on same-store revenue growth, respectively [4][5] - The investment outlook for these brands is positive, as they are positioned for healthy growth through operational innovation and market expansion [5]