研报掘金丨天风证券：维持小商品城“买入”评级，Q3Q4业绩增速预期积极

Core Viewpoint - Tianfeng Securities' research report indicates that Xiaogoods City achieved a 17% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025, aligning with the upper limit of its earnings forecast, highlighting the growth potential of new business segments [1] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, market operating revenue reached 2.379 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5% [1] - Total profit for the period was 1.848 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3% [1] Future Outlook - Short-term focus is on the incremental contribution from the opening of six new markets in the second half of the year, with positive performance expectations for Q3 and Q4 [1] - Long-term prospects are supported by sustained demand for exports under the Belt and Road Initiative and growth in import business, with rental levels expected to maintain single-digit growth [1] - The penetration rates of new business segments such as CG platform and Yi payment are anticipated to increase [1] Earnings Forecast - Based on high growth in Yiwu's export demand and accelerated expansion of new businesses, the company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits attributable to shareholders of 4.3 billion, 5.6 billion, and 6.9 billion yuan respectively (previously 3.9 billion, 5.1 billion, and 6.5 billion yuan) [1] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 26, 20, and 16 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [1] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]